The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, confirmed this Friday that the country will return to the capital markets after seven years, with the placement of a bond maturing in November 2029 and an annual coupon of 6.5%.
“We are returning with a four-year bond to November 2029 with a 6.5% coupon. We have reduced the consolidated debt by US$50 billion,” Caputo highlighted, emphasizing that the Government “has bought US$30 billion in 20 months,” although “it has been more difficult to accumulate because Argentina is a country that has no credit.”
Strategic Alliance with the United States The backing of the Trump Government, materialized in: - A US$20 billion swap with the BCRA - Intervention by the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, selling dollars in the Argentine market - Purchase of Argentine Government bonds - Ongoing negotiations for sovereign funds to invest another US$20 billion
This support is framed within Trump's doctrine of “Peace through Economic Strength,” which prioritizes allies with fiscal discipline and seeks to prevent Argentina from strengthening ties with China.
Favorable Electoral Outcome The victory of La Libertad Avanza in the legislative elections on October 26 cleared political uncertainties and consolidated market confidence in the continuity of the economic program.
International Reserves According to official data as of November 30, 2025: - Gross reserves: US$41.118 billion - Net reserves: US$275 million
The Government's strategy aims to: - Accumulate an additional US$8.5 to US$12.7 billion by mid-2026 - Reach potential reserves of US$60-70 billion in 2026 through exports, swaps, and financing - Substantially improve the Central Bank's balance sheet
Market Opinions Optimistic View: “Structural Change” Analysts highlight the “structural change” achieved: - A historic 19-month surplus, reversing inherited deficits - Attraction of capital for strategic sectors such as mining and energy - A projected growth of 5.2% in 2026 - Disinflation, reaching 22% annually until September 2025
Performance in Markets The “over performance” is emphasized: - Merval Index: Doubled in dollars since 2023 - Sovereign bonds: Gains of over 80% in 2025 - IMF confidence mitigating electoral risks
U.S. Support Market analysts estimate that the placement could be between US$1.5 and US$2.5 billion, depending on demand and market conditions.
Legal and Strategic Aspects A fundamental characteristic of this issuance is that it will be carried out under Argentine law, in compliance with the so-called “Guzman Law,” which states that debt placements under foreign jurisdiction require approval from the National Congress.
This decision allows the Government to: - Avoid the legislative process - Maintain greater control over the terms - Accelerate the issuance process - Minimize political risks
However, it also implies an additional risk premium for investors, as local legislation offers them less protection than New York jurisdiction.
Favorable Market Context Corporate and Provincial Issuances The national issuance occurs in a context where dollar financing has already reopened for the private sector and various provinces: - Private Sector: In recent weeks, Argentine companies have issued over US$3 billion in dollar-denominated negotiable obligations. Firms linked to the energy sector and Vaca Muerta predominate. The placements were made at rates close to 8% annually. It represents the largest monthly volume of corporate issuances in at least a decade. - Provinces: Buenos Aires: US$600 million over 7 years, at a rate of 7.8%; Córdoba: US$725 million to 2032, at an annual rate of 9.75%; Santa Fe: US$800 million over 9 years (2034), with an 8.10% annual coupon.
These precedents show an investor appetite for Argentine assets, which the economic team seeks to leverage for the sovereign to access more competitive rates than the private sector.
Effective Rate Estimation Although the announced coupon is 6.5%, analysts agree that the bond will be issued at a discount (below US$100 per nominal value), which will result in an effective internal rate of return (IRR) higher than the coupon.
Market Projections: - Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI): Estimates that to achieve a 10% IRR, the issuance should be around US$89.5 for every US$100 of nominal value. This would position the bond in the heart of the sovereign curve, a segment not tested by the market. - Inviu (Diego Martínez Burzaco): Projects an IRR between that of the AL30 (11.16%) and the AL35 (10.39%). It expects convergence in the days leading up to the auction. - Cohen: Estimates an effective IRR between 8.5% and 10%. Considers that it will depend significantly on the demand at the auction. Therefore, while the nominal coupon is 6.5%, the effective rate would be between 7.2% and 10%, depending on the final placement price.
Immediate Market Reaction Financial markets reacted positively to the announcement: - Country Risk: Fell from 634 basis points (close of December 4) to 613-620 points after the announcement. This is the lowest level since mid-January 2025. It implies a compression of more than 800 points from the peak of 1,456 units on September 18. - Sovereign Bonds: Dollar-denominated public bonds showed immediate gains: average increases of 0.4% to 1.2%. Bonds under foreign law led the gains. - Stocks: Merval Index: Advanced 0.6% during the day. ADRs on Wall Street: Mostly up. A weekly accumulation of over 2% is projected.
Foundations of the Recovery Sustained Fiscal Surplus The return to the markets is based on tangible macroeconomic achievements: - Primary fiscal surplus: 1.5% of GDP - A streak of surpluses: 19 consecutive months - Reduction of consolidated debt: US$50 billion during the current administration - End of monetary issuance: Elimination of deficit financing through money printing
“Countries refinance debt. It is an important fact,” Caputo stated in a television interview, marking a milestone since the last international issuance in January 2018, during the Macri administration, when Caputo himself was Minister of Finance.
Technical Characteristics of the Bond The new instrument, named BONAR 2029N, has the following characteristics: - Denomination: U.S. Dollars - Maturity: November 30, 2029 - Coupon: 6.5% annual with semi-annual payments - Amortization: 100% of the principal at maturity - Law: Argentina (local law) - Subscription and payment: Exclusively in dollars
Auction Process - Offer reception date: Wednesday, December 10, 2025, from 10:00 to 15:00 - Settlement: Friday, December 12, 2025 (T+2) - Modalities: Two tranches - Non-competitive tranche: For individuals or legal entities without financial specialization, with offers of up to US$50,000 - Competitive tranche: For amounts over US$50,000 with no maximum limit, with the obligation to indicate a price for every US$1,000 of nominal value.
The exact amount to be placed will be determined at the auction, although the goal is to cover a significant portion of the January 2026 maturities.
Objective and Destination of Funds The issuance has a clearly defined strategic purpose: - To partially pay off the maturities of the AL30 and AL29 bonds, scheduled for January 9, 2026, which total approximately US$4.2 billion (including principal and interest).
“The idea is to pay the January maturities without reserves falling,” Caputo explained, emphasizing that “this is particularly important for the country, as it will allow us to accumulate reserves, which means improving the Central Bank's balance sheet and for the country risk to keep falling, for local interest rates to keep falling, and then for people to have access to credit at lower rates.”
The minister clarified that they do not expect to obtain the full US$4.2 billion that mature in January, although he did not specify the exact amount they will seek to place.
Since Argentina has no credit, we have had to pay.
Buenos Aires, December 5, 2025 By Guillermo H.B. Castaño Semper Fidelis Consultora Foros Contemporáneos Economía German Research Community Research Gate X: @guillermo1500 IG: guillermo0150 Web: http://gcastano9.wix.com/guillermohbcastano
Consolidating stability Competitive Rate Economists consider that the 6.5% rate (effective 7.2%-10%) is “reasonable” in the current context: - Gradual reduction of withholdings in the agricultural sector - Tax reforms inspired by successful models - Elimination of monetary issuance as a key factor - Compression of the country risk to 500-600 point levels
International Recognition The 2029 bond positions Argentina as a “responsible pupil” globally: - First issuance post-2020 restructuring - Market validation of the economic program - Potential access to more economic financing in the future
Current Macroeconomic Context Exchange Rate - Wholesale dollar: $1,420.50 - MEP dollar: $1,455 - CCL dollar: $1,474 - Blue dollar: $1,474 The exchange rate remains stable, operating far from the ceiling of the $1,500 exchange rate band, with minimal intervention from the Central Bank.
Inflation - November 2025 projection: 2.1% (official data to be published 12/13) - Buenos Aires, November: 2.2% - November-December projection: Between 2% and 2.4% - Annual inflation: Deceleration to 22% in September
The pass-through to prices from the September-October exchange rate movement was limited, evidence of a better price formation dynamic in the economy.
Economic Growth Estimates point to: - 2025: 8% year-on-year recovery in the second semester - 2026: Projected growth of 5.2% - Expansion without compromising public accounts or generating explosive inflation
Challenges and Pending Risks Despite the optimism, significant challenges remain: - 2026 Debt Maturities - Total estimated: US$18 billion - January 2026: US$4.2 billion (AL30 and AL29) - Need for continuous refinancing - Accumulation of Reserves - Commitment to the IMF: Reach US$12.7 billion by June 2026 - Current situation: Net reserves of only US$275 million - Gap to cover: More than US$12 billion in 6 months - Sustainability of the Exchange Rate - Inflation exceeding the devaluation of the peso - Pressure on the real exchange rate competitiveness - Need to accelerate reforms or adjust the exchange rate bands - Structural Reforms - Pending approval or implementation: Labor reform, comprehensive tax reform, criminal justice system reform, state modernization.
International Context - Positive evolution of the cost of global financing - Impact of decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve - Continuity of Trump administration support
Roadmap: The Next 30 Days Minister Caputo announced that “in the next 30 days” the Government will present a comprehensive plan that will include: - Detailed schedule for reserve accumulation - Strategy for repurchasing existing debt - Priority on GD29 and GD30 - Use of the most economical types of financing - Plan to refinance 2026 maturities - Possible adjustment of the devaluation pace - From 1% to 1.5% monthly - Depending on the evolution of inflation and peso demand - Final negotiation of the syndicated loan - Between US$6 and US$7 billion with international banks
Perspectives and Conclusions “Turning Point” After Seven Years This issuance represents a “turning point” after seven years of isolation from international credit markets, driven by: - Sustained fiscal discipline - A strategic alliance with the United States - An electoral victory that cleared political uncertainty - A substantial improvement in risk perception
Promising Future The indicators suggest Argentina is headed towards: - A prolonged cycle of stability: stable dollar, controlled inflation, balanced fiscal accounts - Gradual access to financing: progressive reduction of the country risk to 500 points or less - Expansion of internal credit: lower rates stimulating consumption and investment - Sustainable growth: without compromising macroeconomic balances
Market Validation The market validates the economic course with: - Bonds at historical highs (80% gains in 2025) - Country risk at the year's low (599-620 points) - Institutional demand for Argentine assets - Competitive rates for the sovereign vs. the private sector
Warning about Challenges However, success will depend on: - Maintaining fiscal balance without populist concessions - Accumulating reserves according to commitments with the IMF - Advancing on pending structural reforms - Managing US$18 billion in maturities in 2026 - Preserving political and social support for the program
Transcendent Impact The significance of this event justifies highlighting the positive effect this achievement will have from now on: - Recovery of international credibility - Access to financing at reasonable rates - Ability to refinance without using reserves - A signal of stability for foreign investors - Reduction of future financing costs - Validation of the economic program
Argentina is not just returning to the markets after seven years: it is doing so on a solid foundation, with international support and a strategic plan aimed at consolidating a virtuous cycle of stability, growth, and sustainable development.
